Body Counts

Finally, U.S. leadership is announcing the numbers of terrorists killed in Iraq. Hugh Hewitt has the quote from President Bush's speech...

In Iraq, our troops are taking the fight to the extremists and radicals and murderers all throughout the country. Our troops have killed or captured an average of more than 1,500 al Qaeda terrorists and other extremists every month since January of this year. (Applause.) We're in the fight. Today our troops are carrying out a surge that is helping bring former Sunni insurgents into the fight against the extremists and radicals, into the fight against al Qaeda, into the fight against the enemy that would do us harm. They're clearing out the terrorists out of population centers, they're giving families in liberated Iraqi cities a look at a decent and hopeful life.

Doing the quick math, that comes to 10,500 dead terrorists since January (not counting any in August). If the Administration would continue to put these numbers out and if the media would publish them, there would be 2 effects: the American public would start to take heart that we're making progress and the surviving terrorists would become disheartened and lose hope (and maybe prospective terrorists would think twice when faced with the odds of quickly becoming part of the body count.

We Just Might Win

You know something is going on when even the New York Times runs an opinion piece that doesn't spout the Democrat rallying cry--"We've Already Lost in Iraq!" Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack recently visited Iraq and their opinion of the progress being made can be summed up quite nicely:

Here is the most important thing Americans need to understand: We are finally getting somewhere in Iraq, at least in military terms.

That sounds like the complete opposite of what the Democratic leadership is saying every time there's a camera and a microphone within reach. After unanimously confirming General Petraeus, they've done a complete flip-flop and undermined his leadership during the surge. Far from being demoralized as the anti-war portrays them, our armed forces are motivated, kicking butt, and taking names.

After the furnace-like heat, the first thing you notice when you land in Baghdad is the morale of our troops. In previous trips to Iraq we often found American troops angry and frustrated — many sensed they had the wrong strategy, were using the wrong tactics and were risking their lives in pursuit of an approach that could not work.

Today, morale is high. The soldiers and marines told us they feel that they now have a superb commander in Gen. David Petraeus; they are confident in his strategy, they see real results, and they feel now they have the numbers needed to make a real difference.

In summary...

Viewed from Iraq, where we just spent eight days meeting with American and Iraqi military and civilian personnel, the political debate in Washington is surreal. The Bush administration has over four years lost essentially all credibility. Yet now the administration’s critics, in part as a result, seem unaware of the significant changes taking place. . . .As two analysts who have harshly criticized the Bush administration’s miserable handling of Iraq, we were surprised by the gains we saw and the potential to produce not necessarily “victory” but a sustainable stability that both we and the Iraqis could live with.

Tribal Leaders Turning on Al Qaeda

Eli Lake, reporting in The New York Sun, tells of how tribes that had previously allowed Al Qaeda to operate in their area are now beginning to turn on the terrorist group.

For those officers overseeing the new tribal diplomacy, signs are emerging that Iraq's deepest social networks — its tribes — are withdrawing their tacit acceptance of Al Qaeda and are becoming more willing to cooperate with American authorities to combat the terror network.

The plan is inspired by some successes that the Marines and the Army had with tribes in Anbar province, but it is still in the early stages. While the military and CIA have tried to reach out to Iraq's tribes since before the war, those efforts yielded mixed results. The majority of Sunni tribes cut deals with Al Qaeda for cash — between $30,000 and $40,000, according to sheiks here — to turn a blind eye to Al Qaeda's activities. That arrangement is starting to fall away.

"I see what I think is becoming a national trend, especially in areas influenced by Al Qaeda, where they have made inroads, and even in places where you see other forms of religious extremism, such as Jaish al-Mahdi, you have it from the South. It's coming, it's there," Lieutenant Colonel Richard Welch said in an interview. Colonel Welch, a public prosecutor in Ohio, spends his days meeting Iraqi tribal chiefs as he oversees tribal and religious outreach for the Multi-National Force in Baghdad.

Sheikh Hussein al-Tamimi, whose tribe has been friendly to American forces since the invasion, agrees that many of his fellow chieftains have changed their position on Al Qaeda in recent months. "I think the motivation behind the change is to protect their interests," he said in an interview. "They lose business."

Sheikh Hussein, as well as other sheikhs interviewed for this piece, said the turning point for the tribes was in September when Al Qaeda in Iraq declared the formation of the Islamic State of Iraq, a shadow state that in pockets of the country has established Islamic sharia courts and tried to provide some social services. The declaration was a direct challenge to the centuries-old tribal system that has prevailed in most of Iraq. As a result, the terrorists once seen as allies against the American invaders have also come to be seen as invaders.

The entire article is well worth the read.

Airpower Summary--10 May

Here's the latest wrapup of the Air Force's contribution to the war.

Air Force A-10 Thunderbolt IIs dropped 500-pound bombs on insurgents firing on a coalition convoy near Sangin. The attack by the A-10s was confirmed a success by an on-scene joint terminal attack controller.

Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles provided shows of force to deter enemy activity around a coalition convoy near Sangin. The aircrews also provided reconnaissance information of a possible insurgent compound and watched over a second convoy in the area that had received small-arms fire.

In total, 39 close-air-support missions were flown in support of ISAF and Afghan security forces, reconstruction activities and route patrols.

n Iraq, an Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon dropped a guided bomb unit-38 on a building near Baquba from which coalition forces had been receiving small-arms fire. The bomb drop resulted in the destruction of the building and no further small-arms firing was reported.

Other F-16s provided successful shows of force supporting ground forces in Balad hit by an improvised explosive device and receiving small-arms fire. The enemy fire stopped after the F-16s flew by. The F-16s also supported Iraqi Army forces who were under small-arms attack.

Near Baghdad, F-16s provided a show of force for convoy members after a rocket-propelled grenade attack. They also watched over a suspicious compound and passed the information gathered to a JTAC.

Also near Baghdad, F-16s provided armed overwatch during two coalition raids. Insurgents were captured and detained during the raids.

Over Muqdadiyah, RAF GR-4 Tornados provided shows of force and overwatch for coalition forces receiving small-arms fire in the area. The small-arms fire stopped after the shows of force. The Tornado crews also searched for mortar positions and watched over a coalition convoy.

In total, coalition aircraft flew 46 close-air-support missions for Operation Iraqi Freedom. These missions supported coalition ground forces, protected key infrastructure, provided overwatch for reconstruction activities and helped to deter and disrupt terrorist activities.

The Awakening

Bill Roggio does his usual job of excellent reporting from Iraq in The Roggio Report. His latest report begins with the effort to stem car bombings by placing barriers up to segment the city.

These barriers stem the flow of traffic through checkpoints and prevent the infiltration of death squads through back alleys and side streets. The news of the creation of the "Adhamiya Wall" sparked protests and the temporary halting of the barrier's construction. Opportunists likened the barrier to the fence separating Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank.

But, as Omar Fadhil noted early last week, "Work to construct similar walls started weeks ago in the Amiriya and Ghazaliyah districts. The 'news' went utterly unnoticed then." Mr. Fadhil noted the barrier has had some effect in Amiriya and Ghazaliyah, and speculated that insurgents might have stirred up the local protests in an attempt to halt the building of the wall.

Dave Kilcullen, the Senior Counter-Insurgency Advisor for Multi-National Force Iraq, explained that Prime Minister Maliki restarted the project after he was briefed on the need for the barrier and how the protests had come about. "As I understand it, once the reasons for the project and the likely benefits in terms of lives saved were explained to the PM, he was happy for it to continue. I understand that the evidence of extremist manipulation was also a factor." Kilcullen likened the barrier to an "urban tourniquet," and explained that the propaganda campaign to disrupt its construction came from none other than al Qaeda in Iraq.

Roggio also tells of how Anbar, once the deadliest city in Iraq, has become much safer. Last summer, there were 50 attacks happening per day. Now, it is just down to 2 a day.

Markets are reopening, children are returning to school and Iraqi and American security forces are conducting patrols throughout the most dangerous neighborhoods in the city.

Part of the success of the Anbar Salvation Council is that it provides the Sunnis in Anbar with a political voice as well as security against al Qaeda. The Anbar Salvation Council's political component is the Anbar Awakening. Seven new tribes have just joined the political party. The Awakening is now expanding beyond Anbar province, and is becoming a national movement. The Anbar Awakening is facilitating the creation of the Iraq Awakening, a national political party which would "oppose insurgents such as Al Qaeda in Iraq and reengage with Iraq's political process." The Iraq Awakening is scheduled to meet in May, and will be the first Sunni political party to openly oppose al Qaeda in Iraq.
Sensing that the Awakening movement was gaining steam in Iraq--branches are said to be forming in Salahadin and Diyala--I asked Omar Fadhil, and Iraqi blogger living in Baghdad, about the perception of the movement inside Baghdad and prospects of the Awakening expanding into the capital. Omar responded that the tribal dynamics were different, and that it was difficult to draw conclusions about Baghdad based on trends in Ramadi.

The following day, Omar noted a report in As Sabah on the creation of the Adhamiya Awakening. "Some community leaders in Adhamiya are working on forming a salvation council for their own district they will be calling The Adhamiya Awakening," reported Omar. "Sources close to the leaders said they [the leaders] have managed to win the support of some hundred people who agree with the new position. The sources asserted that the goal of the Awakening is to rid Adhamiya of the terrorists."

Read the entire post for even more reason for optimism. In the wake of Congress's passing of the foolish funding bill which would set a timetable for a hasty exit from Iraq, it is a good time to write your Congressman and Senator to let them know how upset you are with the Democrats' shameful conduct. They have no idea how idiotic they are appearing to the American public. Read this story about Senator Biden's latest exhibition of his mental prowess.

Progress in Iraq

Although he's not my first choice for President, John McCain would be a much better leader than anyone the Democrats can offer. Sunday, Senator McCain wrote a great piece in the Washington Post about his recent trip to Iraq. Thanks to Marcus for the heads-up.

I just returned from my fifth visit to Iraq since 2003 -- and my first since Gen. David Petraeus's new strategy has started taking effect. For the first time, our delegation was able to drive, not use helicopters, from the airport to downtown Baghdad. For the first time, we met with Sunni tribal leaders in Anbar province who are working with American and Iraqi forces to combat al-Qaeda. For the first time, we visited Iraqi and American forces deployed in a joint security station in Baghdad -- an integral part of the new strategy. We held a news conference to discuss what we saw: positive signs, underreported in the United States, that are reason for cautious optimism. . .The new political-military strategy is beginning to show results. But most Americans are not aware because much of the media are not reporting it or devote far more attention to car bombs and mortar attacks that reveal little about the strategic direction of the war. I am not saying that bad news should not be reported or that horrific terrorist attacks are not newsworthy. But news coverage should also include evidence of progress. Whether Americans choose to support or oppose our efforts in Iraq, I hope they could make their decision based on as complete a picture of the situation in Iraq as is possible to report.

McCain goes on to give some examples of the progress actually being made. It's well worth the read. We need to start writing the mainstream sources of news and begin demanding that they start doing exactly as McCain suggests: stop focusing solely on the negative incidents that are more anecdotal and begin reporting on the big picture.

Bill Roggio, of The Roggio Report, validates and expands on the progress being made in Iraq.